RUSSIAN JOURNAL OF EARTH SCIENCES, VOL. 14, ES3001, doi:10.2205/2014ES000545, 2014
D. V. Kovalevsky, S. I. Kuzmina, L. P. Bobylev
Projections of the gross world product (GWP) for the 21$^\mathrm{st}$ century are computed on a simple climate–macroeconomic model using different global mean surface air temperature projections provided by General Circulation Models (GCMs) as input data. Two alternative specifications of climate damage functions proposed by Nordhaus and Weitzman are considered. High uncertainty of long-term global macroeconomic dynamics with respect to the choice of climate scenarios and climate damage functions is revealed. Strong nonlinearity of the Weitzman function combined with the ``worst-case'' temperature scenario yields a very dramatic scenario of long-term global economic development. A high degree of uncertainty accompanying existing assessments of climate–socioeconomic projections urgently calls for more detailed and better justified estimations of anticipated climate damages at high temperature increases above pre-industrial level.
Received 17 December 2014; accepted 18 December 2014; published 24 December 2014.
Citation: Kovalevsky D. V., S. I. Kuzmina, L. P. Bobylev (2014), Projecting the global macroeconomic dynamics under high-end temperature scenarios and strongly nonlinear climate damage functions, Russ. J. Earth Sci., 14, ES3001, doi:10.2205/2014ES000545.
Copyright 2014 by the Geophysical Center RAS.
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