References

Allègre, C. J., J.-L. Le Mouël, C. Ha Duyen, and C. Narteau (1995), Scaling organization of fracture tectonics (SOFT) and earthquake mechanism, Phys Earth Planet. Inter, 92, 215, doi:10.1016/0031-9201(95)03033-0. [CrossRef]

Allen, C. R., (Chaiman), W. Edwards, W. J. Hall, L. Knopoff, C. B. Raleigh, C. H. Savit, M. N. Toksoz, and R. H. Turner (1976), Predicting earthquakes: A scientific and technical evaluation, with implications for society, Panel on Earthquake Prediction of the Committee on Seismology, Assembly of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, National Research Council, 62 pp., U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C..

Bhatia, S. C., S. V. Chalam, V. K. Gaur, V. I. Keilis-Borok, and V. G. Kossobokov (1989), On intermediate-term presiction of strong earthquakes in the Himalayan arc region using pattern recognition algorithm M8, Proc. Indian Acad. Sci., Earth Planet. Sci., 98, (1), 111.

Blanter, E. M., M. Shnirman, J.-L. Le Mouël, and C. Allègre (1997), Scaling laws in blocks dynamics and dynamic self-organized criticality, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 99, 295, doi:10.1016/S0031-9201(96)03195-0. [CrossRef]

Burridge, R., and L. Knopoff (1967), Model and theoretical seismicity, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 57, 341.

Bursik, R. J., Jr., H. G. Grasmick, and M. B. Chamlin (1990), The effect of longitudional arrest patterns on the development of robbery trends at the neighborhood level, Criminology, 28, 431, doi:10.1111/j.1745-9125.1990.tb01333.x. [CrossRef]

Carlson, S. M. (1998), Uniform Crime Reports: Monthly Weapon-specific Crime and Arrest Time Series, 1975-1993 (National, State, and 12-City Data), ICPSR 6792, Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research, P.O. Box 1248 pp., Ann Arbor, Michigan 48106.

Crutchfield, J. P., J. D. Farmer, N. H. Packard, and R. S. Shaw (1986), Chaos, Sci. Am., 255, 46.

Cyranoski, D. (2004), A seismic shift in thinking, Nature, 431, 1032, doi:10.1038/4311032a. [CrossRef]

Ellsworth, W. L., and G. C. Beroza (1995), Seismic evidence for an earthquake nucleation phase, Science, 268, 851, doi:10.1126/science.268.5212.851. [CrossRef]

Engle, R. F., and D. L. McFadden, Eds. (1994), Handbook of Econometrics, 4, 1078 pp., North-Holland, Amsterdam.

Ericsson, N. R. (1998), Empirical modeling of money demand, Empirical Economics, 23, 295.

Ericsson, N. R., and J. G. MacKinnon (1999), Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration, International Finance Discussion, Papers 655 pp., Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, http://ideas.repec.org/a/ect/emjrnl/ v5y2002i2p285-318.html.

Gabrielov, A., V. Keilis-Borok, I. Zaliapin, and W. I. Newman (2000), Critical transitions in colliding cascades, Phys. Rev. E, 62, 237, doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.62.237. [CrossRef]

Gabrielov, A., W. I. Newman, and D. L. Turcotte (1999), An exactly soluble hierarchical clustering model: Inverse cascades, self-similarity, and scaling, Phys. Rev. E, 60, 5293, doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.60.5293. [CrossRef]

Gahalaut, V. K., I. Kuznetsov, V. Kossobokov, A. Gabrielov, and V. Keilis-Borok (1992), Application of pattern recognition algorithm in the seismic belts of the Indian convergent plate margins - M8 algorithm, Proc. Indian Acad. Sci. (Earth Planet. Sci.), 101, (3), 239.

Gelfand, I. M., Sh. A. Guberman, V. Keilis-Borok, L. Knopoff, F. Press, I. Ranzman, I. M. Rotwain, and A. M. Sadovsky (1976), Pattern recognition applied to earthquake epicenters in California, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 11, 227, doi:10.1016/0031-9201(76)90067-4. [CrossRef]

Geller, R. J., D. D. Jackson, Y. Y. Kagan, and F. Mulargia (1997), Earthquakes cannot be predicted, Science, 275, 1616, doi:10.1126/science.275.5306.1616. [CrossRef]

Gell-Mann, M. (1994), The Quark and the Jaguar: Adventures in the Simple and the Complex, 392 pp., Freeman and Company, New York.

Gorshkov, A., V. Kossobokov, and A. Soloviev (2003), 6. Recognition of earthquake-prone areas, in: Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction, edited by V. I. Keilis-Borok and A. A. Soloviev, p. 141, Springer, Heidelberg.

Gvishiani, A. D., and V. G. Kosobokov (1981), On foundations of the pattern recognition results applied to earthquake-prone areas, Izv. Phys. Solid Earth (in Russian), 2, 21.

Harte, D., D.-F. Li, M. Vreede, and D. Vere-Jones (2003), Quantifying the M8 prediction algorithm: Reduction to a single critical variable and stability results, New Zealand J. Geol. Geophys., 46, 141.

Healy, J. H., V. G. Kossobokov, and J. W. Dewey (1992), A test to evaluate the earthquake prediction algorithm, M8, Open File Rep. 92-401 (with 6 Appendices), 23 pp., Geol. Surv. of U.S., Reston, VA.

International Monetary Fund, (IMF) (1997), International Financial Statistics, CD-ROM pp., World Bank, Washington, DC.

Keilis-Borok, V. I. (1990), The lithosphere of the Earth as a nonlinear system with implications for earthquake prediction, Rev. Geophys., 28, 19, doi:10.1029/RG028i001p00019. [CrossRef]

Keilis-Borok, V. I., and V. G. Kossobokov (1984), A complex of long-term precursors for the strongest earthquakes of the world, Proc. 27th Geological Congress, 61, 56 pp., Nauka, Moscow.

Keilis-Borok, V. I., and V. G. Kossobokov (1987), Periods of high probability of occurrence of the world's strongest earthquakes, Computational Seismology, Allerton Press Inc., 19, 45.

Keilis-Borok, V. I., and V. G. Kossobokov (1990a), Premonitory activation of earthquake flow: Algorithm M8, Phys. Earth Planet. Int., 61, 73, doi:10.1016/0031-9201(90)90096-G. [CrossRef]

Keilis-Borok, V. I., and V. G. Kossobokov (1990b), Times of increased probability of strong earthquakes ( M≥7.5 ), Diagnosed by algorithm M8 in Japan and adjacent territories, J. Geophys. Res., 95, (B8), 12,413.

Keilis-Borok, V. I., and A. J. Lichtman (1993), The self-organization of American society in presidential and senatorial elections, in: Limits of Predictability, edited by Yu. A. Kravtsov, p. 223, Springer-Verlag, Berlin-Heidelberg.

Keilis-Borok, V. I., and F. Press (1980), On seismological applications of pattern recognition, in: Source Mechanism and Earthquake Prediction Applications, edited by C. J. Allegre, p. 51, Editions du Centre national de la recherché scientifique, Paris.

Keilis-Borok, V. I., and I. M. Rotwain (1990), Diagnosis of time of increased probability of strong earthquakes in different regions of the world: algorithm CN, Phys. Earth Planet. Int., 61, 57, doi:10.1016/0031-9201(90)90095-F. [CrossRef]

Keilis-Borok, V. I., and A. A. Soloviev, Eds. (2003), Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction, 337 pp., Springer-Verlag, Berlin-Heidelberg.

Keilis-Borok, V. I., L. Knopoff, I. M. Rotwain, and C. R. Allen (1988), Intermediate-term prediction of occurrence times of strong earthquakes, Nature, 335, (6192), 690, doi:10.1038/ 335690a0. [CrossRef]

Keilis-Borok, V., J. H. Stock, A. Soloviev, and P. Mikhalev (2000), Pre-recession pattern of six economic indicators in the USA, J. Forecast, 19, 65, doi:10.1002/(SICI)1099-131X(200001)19:1<65::AID-FOR730>3.0.CO;2-U. [CrossRef]

Keilis-Borok, V. I., A. Soloviev, C. Allègre, A. Sobolevskii, and M. Intriligator (2001), Dynamics of Macroeconomic Indicators before the Rize of Unemployment in Western Europe and the USA, Sixth Workshop on Non-Linear Dynamics and Earthquake Prediction, 15-27 October 2001, H4.SMR/1330-11, 36 pp., ICTP, Trieste.

Keilis-Borok, V. I., D. Gascon, A. A. Soloviev, M. Intriligator, R. Pichardo, and F. E. Winberg (2003), On predictability of homicide surges in megacities, in: Risk Science and Sustainability, edited by T. Beer, A. Ismail-Zadeh (NATO Science Series. II. Mathematics, Physics and Chemistry, vol. 112), p. 91, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht-Boston-London.

Keilis-Borok, V. I., A. Soloviev, C. Allègre, A. Sobolevskii, and M. D. Intriligator (2005), Patterns of macroeconomic indicators preceding the unemployment rise in Western Europe and the USA, Pattern Recognition, 38, (3), 423, doi:10.1016/j.patcog.2004.08.005. [CrossRef]

Klein, Ph. A., and M. P. Niemira (1994), Forecasting Financial and Economic Cycles, 542 pp., Wiley, New York.

Kossobokov, V., and P. Shebalin (2003), 4. Earthquake Prediction, in: Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction, edited by V. I. Keilis-Borok, and A. A. Soloviev, p. 141, Springer, Heidelberg.

Kossobokov, V. G., and A. V. Khokhlov (1993), An experimental intermediate-term prediction of earthquakes in real time: Verification of the M8 algorithm, in: Mathematical Modeling of Seismotectonic Processes in the Lithosphere Oriented on the Problem of Earthquake Prediction, Issue 1 (in Russian), p. 53, MITP RAN, Moscow.

Kossobokov, V. G., B. K. Rastogi, and V. K. Gaur (1989), On self-similarity of premonitory patterns in the regions of natural and induced seismicity, Proc. Indian Ac. Sci., Earth and Planetary Sciences, 98, (4), 309.

Kossobokov, V. G., J. H. Healy, V. I. Keilis-Borok, J. Dewey, and A. V. Khokhlov (1992), Testing an intermediate-term earthquake prediction algorithm: A real-time test design and the results of retrospection, Doklady RAN (in Russian), 325, (1), 46.

Kossobokov, V. G., L. Romashkova, G. Panza, and A. Peresan (2002), Stabilizing intermediate-term medium-range earthquake predictions, J. Seismology Earthquake Engineering, 4, (2-3), 11.

Kossobokov, V. G., V. I. Keilis-Borok, and S. W. Smith (1990), Localization of intermediate-term earthquake prediction,, J. Geophys. Res., 95, (B12), 19,763.

Kossobokov, V. G., V. I. Keilis-Borok, L. L. Romashkova, and J. H. Healy (1999), Testing earthquake prediction algorithms: Statistically significant real-time prediction of the largest earthquakes in the Circum-Pacific, 1992-1997, Phys. Earth Planet. Int., 111, (3-4), 187.

Kossobokov, V. G. (1997), User Manual for M8, in: Algorithms for earthquake statistics and prediction, edited by J. H. Healy, V. I. Keilis-Borok, and W. H. K.  Lee, IASPEI Software Library, vol. 6, Seismol. Soc. Am., p. 167, El Cerrito, CA.

Latoussakis, J., and V. G. Kossobokov (1990), Intermediate term earthquake prediction in the area of Greece: Application of the Algorithm M8, Pure Appl. Geophys., 134, (2), 261, doi:10.1007/BF00877001. [CrossRef]

Lichtman, A. J., and V. I. Keilis-Borok (1989), Aggregate-level analysis and prediction of midterm senatorial elections in the United States, 1974-1986, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 86, (24), 10,176, doi:10.1073/pnas.86.24.10176. [CrossRef]

Messner, S. F. (1983), Regional differences in the economic correlates of the urban homicide rate, Criminology, 21, 477, doi:10.1111/j.1745-9125.1983.tb00275.x. [CrossRef]

Molchan, G. M. (1994), Models for optimization of earthquake prediction, in: Computational Seismology and Geodynamics, edited by D. K. Chowdhury, vol. 1, p. 1, Am Geophys Un, Washington, DC.

Molchan, G. M. (2003), 5. Earthquake prediction strategies: A theoretical analysis, in: Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction, edited by V. I. Keilis-Borok, and A. A. Soloviev, p. 141, Springer, Heidelberg.

Mostaghimi, M., and F. Rezayat (1996), Probability forecast of a downturn in U. S. economy using classical statistical theory, Empirical Economics, 21, 255, doi:10.1007/BF01175973. [CrossRef]

Newman, W., A. Gabrielov, and D. L. Turcotte, (Eds.) (1994), Nonlinear Dynamics and Predictability of Geophysical Phenomena, http://prola.aps.org/toc/PRE/v61/i4 pp., Am Geophys Un., Int Un Geodesy Geophys.

OECD, (1997), Main Economic Indicators: Historical Statistics 1960-1996, CD-ROM pp., OECD, Paris.

Peresan, A., V. Kossobokov, L. Romashkova, and G. F. Panza (2005), Intermediate-term middle-range earthquake predictions in Italy: A review, Earth-Sience Reviews, 69, (1-2), 97, doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2004.07.005. [CrossRef]

Press, F., and C. Allen (1995), Patterns of seismic release in the southern California region, J. Geophys. Res., 100, (B4), 6421, doi:10.1029/95JB00316. [CrossRef]

Press, F., and P. Briggs (1975), Chandler wobble, earthquakes, rotation and geomagnetic changes, Nature (London), 256, 270, doi:10.1038/256270a0. [CrossRef]

Press, F., and P. Briggs (1977), Pattern recognition applied to uranium prospecting, Nature (London), 268, 125, doi:10.1038/268125a0. [CrossRef]

Romachkova, L. L., V. Kossobokov, G. Panza, and G. Costa (1998), Intermediate-term prediction of earthquakes in Italy: Algorithm M8, Pure Appl. Geophys., 152, 37, doi:10.1007/s000240050140. [CrossRef]

Shebalin, P., V. Keilis-Borok, I. Zaliapin, S. Uyeda, T. Nagao, and N. Tsybin (2003), Short-term premonitory rise of the earthquake correlation range: 18 case histories for the largest earthquakes in Japan ( M≥7 ) and 3 in California ( M≥7.4 ), in: IUGG2003, June 30-July 11, 2003, p. Abstracts, A.184, Sapporo, Japan.

Stock, J. H., and M. W. Watson (1989), New indexes of leading and coincident economic indicators, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual, p. 351, University of Chicago Press, Chicago.

Stock, J. H., and M. W. Watson (1993), A procedure for predicting recessions with leading indicators, in: Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting (NBER Studies in Business Cycles, Vol.28), edited by J. H. Stock and M. W. Watson, p. 95, University of Chicago Press, Chicago.

Tukey, J. W. (1977), Exploratory Data Analysis, Addison-Wesley Series in Behavioral Science: Quantitative Methods, 688 pp., Addison-Wesley, Reading (Mass).

Vorobieva, I. A. (1999), Prediction of a subsequent large earthquake, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 111, 197, doi:10.1016/S0031-9201(98)00160-5. [CrossRef]

Watson, M. W. (1994), Vector autoregressions and cointegration, Chapter 47, in: Handbook of Econometrics, vol. IV, edited by R. F. Engle and D. L. McFadden, p. 2843, North-Holland, Amsterdam.

Wyss, M. (1997), Cannot earthquakes be predicted?, Science, 278, 487, doi:10.1126/science.278.5337.487. [CrossRef]

Zaliapin, I., V. Keilis-Borok, and M. Ghil (2003), A Boolean delay model of colliding cascades. II: Prediction of critical transitions, J. Stat. Phys., 111, (3-4), 839, doi:10.1023/A:1022802432590. [CrossRef]


RJES