RUSSIAN JOURNAL OF EARTH SCIENCES VOL. 8, ES6003, doi:10.2205/2006ES000212, 2006

Conclusion

[64]  In this work, we carried out numerical modeling of the generation of long gravity waves in water by a dynamic seismic source and their propagation for the specific historical events in the Black Sea. It was shown that for a given magnitude of earthquake the source provides a good agreement with the data of pressure gauges recorded for the given event. The performed calculation of possible catastrophic tsunami at the Black Sea coast from hypothetical seismic sources showed that if the source is localized in the region with coordinates 34.4oE-33.6oE; 44.3oN-43.5oN, the regions of Yalta and Novorossiysk would be subjected to greatest hazard, while the regions of Sochi and Gelendzhik would rest in the calm zone.

[65]  The analysis demonstrated that for local tsunamis at the same earthquake magnitude and conservation of the source parameters and its localization the possible values of tsunami run-up and run-down at the coast depend significantly in the sequence of the motion of key-blocks in the seismic source.

[66]  It is clear that the performed analysis is only an example of using the dynamic keyboard model for calculating possible consequences after earthquakes with magnitude M = 8.5. Complete analysis of the possible catastrophic consequences of tsunami wave impact caused by strong earthquakes requires numerical modeling of the generation and propagation of tsunami waves at the location of the earthquake source in the most dangerous zones of fractures of tectonic plates, which will be studied in our future work.


RJES

Citation: Mazova, R. Kh., and E. A. Tresvyatskaya (2006), Numerical modeling of the generation of long waves by a dynamic seismic source and their propagation in the Black Sea, Russ. J. Earth Sci., 8, ES6003, doi:10.2205/2006ES000212.

Copyright 2006 by the Russian Journal of Earth Sciences

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