RUSSIAN JOURNAL OF EARTH SCIENCES VOL. 8, ES6003, doi:10.2205/2006ES000212, 2006
[2] Numerical modeling of tsunami at the coast of the Black Sea including the estimate of tsunami hazard and seismic hazard of the Russian coast (see, for example, [Garagash and Lobkovsky, 2000; Solovieva and Kuzin, 2005]) is a pressing objective of research in the last decades. High industrial potential of the region (large ports, terminals of gas and oil pipelines), and the largest recreation zone that exists here determine the importance of this problem. The urgency of such calculations is related, in particular, to the problem of operation of the marine part of gas pipeline Russia-Turkey (the "Blue Flow" project) connecting the territories of these countries over the bottom of the Black Sea, which should operate in the conditions of increased seismic and landslide hazard of the Russian and Turkish slopes of the Black Sea [Garagash and Lobkovsky, 2000; Solovieva and Kuzin, 2005].
[3] Although seismicity of the Caucasus and Crimea coasts is considered moderate (see, for example, [Solovieva and Kuzin, 2005]), according to the chart of the maximal vibrations over the territory of North Caucasus, the coast of the Black Sea from Anapa to Sochi falls within the zone of seventh grade of intensity, which approximately corresponds to magnitude 6 and horizontal velocities from 0.1 to 0.2 m/s [Lobkovsky and Baranov, 1984; Solovieva and Kuzin, 2005]. Even more, detailed seismological observations using bottom stations of high sensitivity in the Jubga region where the terminal of the gas pipeline Russia-Turkey is located, revealed a very high level of seismic activity at the level of micro- and weak earthquakes. Such seismicity is caused by the regional tectonics since the Black Sea is located in the boundary region of the interaction between the Arabian and Eurasian tectonic plates, which results in the fact that in the northeastern part of the Black Sea Depression, significant stresses are formed in the Earth's crust, which later relax in the form of earthquakes in the zones of shelf and continental slope as well as in the fractures of the costal zone [Solovieva and Kuzin, 2005].
[4] In addition to the seismic displacements of the sea bottom, development of large landslide displacements of large blocks of sedimentary formations are possible over the underwater slopes in their upper parts induced by seismicity of the bottom [Garagash and Lobkovsky, 2000; Lobkovsky and Baranov, 1984]. Such landslides can also be the sources of tsunamis (cf. with [Garder et al., 1993; Gusyakov V.K., 1978; Novikova and Ostrovsky, 1978]), which were mentioned in historical tsunami data in this region (between Sochi and Tuapse in 1909 [Solovieva and Kuzin, 2005; Zaitsev et al., 2002]).
[5] As was mentioned in [Solovieva and Kuzin, 2005], the peculiarity of tsunami propagation in the basin of the Black Sea is trapping of wave energy in the zone of the shelf and continental slope, which results in the fact that for the sources in the western part of the Black Sea the wave energy is almost not transferred to the eastern part of the sea, and on the contrary, tsunamis generated in the eastern part of the sea are strongly attenuated when the waves approach its western coast.
[6] The Anapa region is one of the seismic active regions at the Russian coast of the Black Sea. Underwater earthquakes repeatedly occurred and tsunamis were recorded here. The recurrence period of tsunami is approximately 40 years [Solovieva and Kuzin, 2005]. The last of the recorded earthquakes and tsunamis in this region occurred in July 1966, thus numerical modeling of the possible tsunami in the nearest time at the coast of the Black Sea based on the new model of seismic source and characteristic of tsunami at the coast in the Anapa region, where the well known recreation center for children is located, seems were actual.
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Citation: 2006), Numerical modeling of the generation of long waves by a dynamic seismic source and their propagation in the Black Sea, Russ. J. Earth Sci., 8, ES6003, doi:10.2205/2006ES000212.
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